You want to sell your supermarket? Then it's good to know what the takeover market in the field of supermarkets looks like. The sales trend of supermarkets is growing, but in the coming years, supermarkets should especially take into account disruptive (online) players that respond to the growing customer need for convenience.
In the supermarket sector, there is mainly a battle between large players trying to gain scale through acquisitions. Large supermarket chains such as Jumbo, Coop and Ahold (Albert Heijn) have been responsible for a lion's share of the number of mergers and acquisitions in the supermarket sector in recent years.
There are many ways to value a business. A common method of expressing the value of a business is "a factor x gross annual profit." This factor is also called multiple and another designation for gross annual profit is EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization).
In the retail sector - to which a supermarket belongs - an indicative range of EBITDA multiple of 1.9 to 3.0 is currently used, according to the Brookz Takeover Barometer. The average EBITDA multiple across all SME sectors is 4.90.
The valuation of a business is often the starting point for negotiations between buyer and seller. The outcome of these negotiations is the final sales price. So valuation and price are two different quantities. Besides valuation, the price is also determined by possible scarcity in the market, bargaining power of the parties, the strategic value of the business for the buyer and possible synergy effects for the buyer (cost savings, purchasing advantages).
Do the calculation
Rabobank expects the market share of online in the Netherlands to grow to between 15 and 20 percent by 2030. This online business will not be evenly distributed among the current supermarket formats. In time, this new logistics channel will probably end up reducing the total area of physical supermarkets. More logically, stores with weak formulas or in unfavorable locations will be divested.
In figures, the number of supermarkets in 2024 looked as follows(CBS):
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A number of trends and developments will inevitably cause changes in the coming years, but also offer supermarkets many growth and acquisition opportunities:
The supermarket sector remains a mass market where scale, efficiency and marketing power are all determining factors for success. The franchisee is important for good store organization and efficient operations. In doing so, successful entrepreneurs capitalize on the potential of the location and the target group they can attract there.
Society is individualizing and members of composite households also often behave as single-person households, for example, because of work. As a result, time efficiency becomes important and consumers do their shopping differently. For example, consumers divide these into short-term visits during the week and partly via the Internet. It is important for supermarkets to respond to this.
Within a road distance of five kilometers, consumers can choose from an average of 22 supermarkets, according to ABN Amro. The rise of new (online) entrants and competition from the non-food sector only intensifies that competition. ABN Amro expects the number of branches in the middle segment to decrease in the coming years and an increase in smaller (city) supermarkets, focused on the short-term message. Larger supermarkets will focus more on experience.
Picnic and HelloFresh are responding to the growing customer need for convenience. In response, established supermarkets are opening more small town stores with more flexible opening hours. The number of larger supermarkets with more flexible opening hours, pick-up points and dining and seating options is also growing. The addition of food service elements such as at Jumbo/La Place will be more prevalent.
