The relationship between America and Europe has been on edge since Trump took office as president. Still allies, but Trump is sailing an erratic course, which has economic effects.
The U.S. itself suffers the most; but also Europe will have to take even more account of the unpredictable Trump. Will this affect M&A in Dutch SMEs? Yes. And it offers opportunities.
Uncertainty
Geopolitical tensions mean uncertainty in various sectors; companies trading with America do not know where they stand. Europe preaches greater autonomy; this is not easy when there are entrenched trade relations with the U.S.
Even an SME, directly or indirectly, has to deal with this. For example, if a business supplies multinational companies that export a lot to the U.S.. Trump's trade tariffs cause higher prices for foreign products; fortunately, one might almost say, the U.S. imports more from Europe than the other way around. Just look at chip maker ASML. So there is a stick to hit back with.
Marketability
Nevertheless, Dutch businesses will also scrutinize their dependence on trade relations with the US. How does this translate to the marketability of businesses doing business with the U.S.? To illustrate: if 30% of a company's revenue is realized in the US, trade tariffs will put pressure on sales prices in the US. In terms of sales, this carries risk. If a timely response is not taken, the risk profile of the company in question worsens. And thus the value of the company could fall.
A good time for companies to look in the mirror and increase risk diversification by reducing dependence on the U.S. sales market. This requires a proactive approach. The cards need to be shuffled differently. But above all, collective action must be taken, with national and European governments in the lead with targeted economic policies to "protect" its businesses, and thus economies.
Capital Market
In Qufinity s M&A practice, we also notice the consequences of the unstable situation with the US. This also presents opportunities. We have clients who are deliberately pre-sorting or have already pre-sorted for less dependency. This is not even necessary because (in)direct trade with the U.S.; consider, for example, our customers' IT environments, often the heart of the business; should Microsoft fill in everything? Should cloud environments be facilitated by U.S. businesses? Already, risk-averse customers (such as governments) are asking our customers for (more) regionally driven IT environments. Data centers located in Europe or the Netherlands, to give another example.
A current case study of a company (with a strong digital component) that we are currently selling is hardly dependent in its (crucial) IT on the US tech giants. And that increases the value of the company and visibly the appetite among buyers.
If we briefly highlight the capital market, an important factor in takeover country: economic uncertainty in the U.S. offers opportunities, for Europe and especially the Netherlands. The Netherlands is a "safe" country to invest in because of its excellent governance, legal structures and infrastructure. Dutch companies can therefore count on extra attention from investors as a safe haven.
Conclusion
The uncertain situation in the U.S. in relation to Europe may offer more opportunities than limitations in the Dutch M&A landscape; businesses will (have to) recalibrate their supply chains, alternative suppliers are already being actively sought, and the Netherlands as a safe haven is the gateway to Europe.
If Europe and the Netherlands also continue to develop technologically, the future looks bright. It promises to be an exciting 2026 for entrepreneurial Holland.
